Pradeep Chatterjee (name changed), 32, a senior correspondent with a media company in Mumbai, had everything going for him-a job he liked, a decent salary, and a new two-bedroom flat in Borivali overlooking the school where his eight-year-old son studied. But earlier this month, there were rumours that his firm was laying off at least 300 people, including several in the online team he worked with. On August 23, Chatterjee's worst fears came true.
The HR head handed him and 44 of his colleagues the pink slip, along with two months' salary. As Chatterjee got into a final emotional huddle with his other 'sacked' colleagues, he could no longer hold back the tears. "I wouldn't have felt so devastated had I been thrown out for poor performance," he said.
Chatterjee is just one among hundreds of media professionals who have lost their jobs over the last two months, and joins thousands across various sectors such as automobiles, infrastructure, banking, and engineering as India nosedives into a dangerous vortex of economic malaise. The proportion of Indian workers gainfully employed slipped to 35.4 per cent in 2011-12, compared to 36.5 per cent in 2009-10, the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) said in June. This is a sizeable fall from an employment rate of 42 per cent in 2004-05, when the UPA government came to power for the first time.
Consultants say that if things keep moving in the direction they are, job losses across the country would touch 500,000 in 2013-14, similar to the levels at the time of the financial meltdown in 2008-09. India has lost five million jobs overall in the fiveyear period 2005-2010, the Planning Commission said in March this year, while only 2.76 million jobs were added. A hiring outlook survey by Naukri.com in July revealed a muted hiring sentiment for the remaining half of 2013 compared to what it was at the beginning of the year, with only 43 per cent of recruiters forecasting new job creation in the year's second half. "The economy is certainly not in the best of shape," says Ambarish Raghuvanshi, CFO, Naukri.com, part of Info Edge India.
"The hiring confidence can't overlook these parameters and hence reflects the slowdown." The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey for the third quarter (July-September) for 2013 said employers in India reported the weakest hiring outlook in eight years in the Asia-Pacific region. An estimated 4.5 million enter the Indian job market every year-750,000 engineers, 500,000 MBAs and at least three million other graduates.
"Given an evident slowdown in manufacturing and exports, the employment outlook by companies certainly looks weak," says Naina Lal Kidwai, president, Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI), and country head, HSBC India. "FICCI's Business Confidence Survey for the last quarter of financial year 2013 has reported bleak employment prospects vis-a-vis a year ago. A majority 65 per cent of the participants indicated no fresh hiring over the first two quarters of fiscal year (FY) 2013-14," she adds.
The situation seems worse off than 2008, when Indian companies were relatively unaffected and proceeded with expansions and overseas acquisitions. "The mood is unlikely to change, till the global and local macro economic issues play out," says Sonal Agrawal, CEO of Accord Group India, an executive search firm. "The 2008 slowdown was a global phenomenon, with its roots in the US. But Western economies are now reviving," adds E. Balaji, an HR expert and former CEO of manpower consultancy Randstad India.
That means the current crisis is a local creation in which India can hardly blame anyone else.
