Vote-Bank Politics: In the last year, mandarins of the ruling Congress Party (aided and abetted by various NGOs and self-styled "leftist" gurus) have been crafting policies with both eyes focussed exclusively on cultivating "winnable" vote-banks.
The hyper-aggressive quota-raj, the unprecedented (albeit opportunist and short-sighted) farm-loan waiver, unabashed (and often treacherous) Islamic appeasement, and the cynical Hindu-baiting (as in the frame-up of Sadhvi Pragya and Abhinav Bharat activists in the Malegaon blast) were all designed to shore up the Congress (and UPA) vote-banks in anticipation of state and national elections.
Even the left-initiated NREGS program (which was initially viewed with some skepticism) drew enthusiastic Congress support when its potential for attracting rural votes was highlighted. For an entire year, the Congress was consumed with harvesting specific vote banks, and so intent was the national media in advancing the image of the Congress that it chose to wilfully under-report or ignore a series of gross policy mis-steps (such as tightening interest rates when the entire world was heading towards a deep and long recession).
But the irony of the recent vote was not that the BJP failed to consolidate the anti-terror vote but that all the cynical ploys of the Congress bigwigs failed to make any impact on the two states where these crafty manouvers were expected to yield the highest dividends.
Candidates anointed by Quota Czar Arjun Singh failed miserably at the hustings, and the much touted loan waiver had only a minor impact on the rural vote. In a further karmic reversal, the tortuous attempts at concocting a "Saffron Terror Conspiracy" rudely backfired on the Congress with most voters seeing through the crude charade put up by the Maharashtra ATS.
For many months, the Congress-affiliated propaganda machine had gone over-board in portraying the BJP government as being ultra-harsh on the poor. International and domestic media outlets were rife with stories of "rampant malnutrition" and "starvation" deaths amongst the rural poor. And even though a CAG report had identified Madhya Pradesh as the most pro-active and efficient implementer of the NREG scheme, pro-Congress and pro-Left intellectuals rushed to trash the CAG report lest credit for the flagship scheme go the BJP. Yet, none of this cut much ice with the voters.
If anything, reports critiquing the BJP's implementation of the NREG program only revealed the many inherent limitations in the flagship scheme that put serious question marks on its long-term utility and viability. After all, there is only so much useful infrastructure that can be built in villages where economic conditions are otherwise not conducive for develoment.
In spite of mounting evidence that India's modernization requires widespread and rapid (but planned and orderly) urbanization, India's left (whether naxal or mainstream) remains fixated with the Indian village even though droves of villagers continue to abandon their stagnant or unviable rural habitats for the economically more vibrant city. Throughout the world, there has been an inexorable trend towards migration to the city. Yet, only in India, does the entire left respond to the inevitability of urbanization with repeated acts of defiant lunacy.
Consequently, in both Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh, India's medievally obsessed leftists got the decisive brush-off they deserved. For years, the Indian left had salivated at the prospect of a tribal-dominated state in central India that would finally allow it to expand beyond the old forts of Bengal and Kerala. The entire left (along with their many cohorts in the Indian "Human Rights" community) had rallied sharply against the BJP, yet it was in tribal-dominated Bastar where the BJP did best. Tribal communities refused to be treated as museum pieces by armchair leftists and outsiders. They saw that development could happen in the state (as it had not only in Raipur and the twin cities of Bhilai and Durg, but also in Bilapsur, Rajnandgaon and emerging industrial centres like Raigarh and Korba). What they wanted was tangible progress, not hot air.
Other purveyors of such vote-bank politics also suffered humiliating rejections. The Samajvadi Party that once appeared to have perfected the art of benefiting from vote-bank policies (until its recent defeat in UP) also received a befitting rebuff.
However, in Rajasthan, the result was less than cheering for those hoping for the demise of caste as a factor in Indian politics.
Although it may be worth noting that only 1% separated the vote share of the two main parties (and the combined vote of the BJP and its rebels exceeded the Congress vote), nevertheless, there is some evidence that the caste-card had a deleterious effect on the fortunes of the BJP, particularly the Congress-backed (and possibly Congress-engineered) Gujjar agitation and the subsequent Meena backlash. Having opened the door to the politics of quotas in her first campaign, Vasundhara Raje fell to an even more toxic cauldron of the caste brew.
Having taken commendable steps in improving state highways, dramatically augmenting power supply, enhancing schemes for education of the girl-child, and greatly increasing options for vocational training and engineering education, proponents of development in the once BIMARU state may have anticipated a Raje win. But unfortunately, some of her efforts will only yield fruit later (and so failed to move enough voters) and dirty politics undoubtedly played a role in her undoing.
Nevertheless, there may well be other lacunae in Raje's strategy for the development of Rajasthan. In Gujarat, notwitstanding Sonia Gandhi's shrill "Maut ka Saudagar" campaign, Modi won handsomely. None of the semingly clever caste and other calculations were able to undermine his popular appeal.
Therefore, other factors may also be at play.
One of the industries that has put India on the international map is its pharmaceutical industry. Although it would be foolhardy to over-generalize from an analysis of this industry alone, one may be tempted to infer that the development of the pharmaceutical industry can be seen as one important marker of a state's industrial maturity. An on-line 2004 report on the spatial spread of pharma-manufacturers offers some useful clues.
By 2004, states like Gujarat (along with Punjab and Haryana) had achieved a remarkable developmental spread with pharmaceutical units setting up in almost every district; and in some districts, they had a presence in multiple blocks. In contrast, in Maharashtra, pharmaceutical units were concentrated almost entirely in the western third of the state. The Vidarbha region was conspicuously under-represented. This may have contributed to the earlier defeat of the Shiv-Sena led government which did quite poorly in the eastern regions of the state.
However, in MP, there appears to have been a modest (albeit visible) expansion in the industrialization of hitherto under-developed or undeveloped districts. Besides Indore and Bhopal, Gwalior has emerged as a growth magnet for northern MP and Jabalpur for southern MP. In addition, secondary growth clusters have emerged in Nimach, Mandsaur and Ratlam in the extreme west, Satna and Rewa in the north east, Sagar and Ujjain in central MP, and Balaghat and Damoh in southern/eastern MP. Even though substantive industrial growth has not yet encompassed all districts, the impact of development in neighboring districts has given hope to a majority of residents that progress is on the horizon.
In contrast (if one goes by the 2004 pharma survey), Rajasthan suffered from a more skewed and narrow pattern of industrialization. The spatial spread of its industries was noticeably worse than Orissa, AP and MP. Laudable as they were, Vasundhara Raje's efforts to accelerate industrial development bore fruit primarily in Jaipur and the neighboring districts of Alwar, Kota and Ajmer(and to a lesser extent in Central Rajsthan, and around Sikar, Ganganagar and Bikaner). Although southern Rajasthan experienced much faster growth than before, the relatively slower pace of industrialization in some of the southern (and some western) districts may have disappointed some, and this may have contributed to some disaffection within party ranks as well.
Just as TDP's Chandrababu Naidu had been punished by the state's voters for overly Hyderabad-centric growth, Raje may have missed the electoral bus for highly Jaipur-centric growth. In spite of a vastly improved record over her predecessor (Gehlot), Raje paid the price for being unable to direct growth uniformly across the state.
Rajasthan is a state where local (or sub-regional) identities can be very strong and expectations for progress were extremely high. Raje's hands-off approach to allow industry the full freedom to choose where it wished to invest may not have sat well with voters who wished her to play a more activist role in bringing industry closer to their door-step.
This is an important lesson for all aspiring state politicians. The same factors that played out against Vasundhara Raje this time may well come to the fore again if Gehlot's approach to government lacks the activism that was expected from Raje. Ridiculed as a developmental zero in his previous term, Gehlot will have to deliver on some very high expectations.
As for the charge that the BJP's attempt to "communalize" the anti-terror campaign failed, it must be emphasized that rural voters in undeveloped or under-developed blocks probably didn't care about the issue enough in a state election. The Congress and its allies should not delude themselves in thinking that their abysmal record in fighting terror will have no impact in the general election.
In Delhi, the BJP's anti-terror campaign fell on deaf ears partly because many of Delhi's RWA activists felt deeply estranged from the party due to its strong and unconditional affiliation with the traders lobby. Many popular RWA leaders who had distanced themselves from both the BJP and the Congress in the earlier Municipal elections actively campaigned for the Congress this time. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the increased voter turnout helped the Congress, not the BJP.
By promoting a Chief Ministerial candidate who was perceived as insensitive or aloof towards the RWAs, and by sidelining many hard-working women cadres and popular municipal councillers, the BJP was fighting the election with one arm tied behind its back.
The RWAs have emerged as a unique and significant grassroots force in the politics of the city. By and large, the candidates that enjoyed a healthy relationship with the RWAs prevailed. Those critical of Congress policies stayed away but couldn't bring themselves to vote for a BJP that had acquired the reputation of being adversarial towards the RWA movement.
However, should Sheila Dixit stubbornly persist in foisting foolhardy and unsound schemes such as the BRTS, it is quite likely that the RWA leaders who have swayed the vote in favor of the Congress will themselves lose credibility and the entire foundation of the RWA movement will be undermined.
Residents in East Delhi (who decisively voted Congress) were obviously unfamiliar with the BRTS fiasco in South Delhi. When such traffic nightmares recur elesewhere in the city, the mood of the city may well change, and quite dramatically so.
Voters are hungry for development, but not necessarily for the wrong kind of development.
It may also be noted that while the Congress did very well in terms of winning seats, it lost a considerable share of its previous votes to the BSP which increased its vote share in Delhi to 14%, in MP to roughly 10% and in Rajasthan to 8%. However, this has not yet translated into as many seats or any substantive political influence. Although the BSP has been able to demonstrate quite decisively that it can play the role of a "spoiler" (by drawing upon a shifting bank of protest votes), it has yet to be determined if similar trends will hold in a national election.
While identity politics may be understandably important for Dalits who are systematically denied the benefits that are their due to local corruption, it cannot be emphasized enough that for the BSP to emerge as a credible alternative to the Congress and BJP, it will have to articulate its views on issues that impact not just Dalits but all voters. It will have to feel the pulse of the entire citizenry if it hopes to lead the nation as a whole.
Even as the support of Dalits gives the BSP a certain moral standing, that may not ensure that other voters will give it a blank check on pressing issues of national importance. That will require more than placating some voters with promises of yet more quotas (even as it dodges key issues for fear of offending its Islamic and caste-related vote banks).
Even in terms of meeting the long-term aspirations of its core base, the BSP will have to carefully consider its present stance of (loosely) allying with an idealogically deformed left. Dalits have no real interest in the tired old left slogan of land reforms. The villages are where caste politics emerges in its ugliest and most baneful form. Most Dalits know that (relatively-speaking) cities liberate them and industrial development offers them the best jobs they can hope to find. They have few illusions about any rural "utopia" implied by the program of the left.
As it is, Dalits are typically the first to leave oppressive villages and the very last to return. That is why, the BSP had only very limited interest in supporting village-centric schemes (such as the NREGS) offered by the left.
Instead, the BSP has a far greater stake in rapid and balanced urbanization. As its urban base expands, it may be compelled to look at the urban-rural divide very differently. It may have to fight more forcefully for low-income urban housing and improved amenities in urban ghettoes and slums. These are issues that have been sorely neglected by the left and other so-called "secular" forces.
Unless sections of the left articulate an agenda of urban renewal and planned urbanisation, an alliance with the left is likely to remain one of temporal convenience - hardly the basis of long-term party building.
While the BJP may need to overcome its tendency towards conservatism and excessive economic liberalism, radical upstarts like the BSP may have to think more seriously about issues pertaining to national security and broad civilizational paradigms that extend beyond the immediate interests of its most avid supporters.
As for the Congress, it should not be too buoyed by its victory (by default) in Rajasthan. Instead, it should ponder very deeply over its predeliction for cynical policy manouvers that go against the overall good of the nation.
Not only is it bad politics, in a majority of districts, even the voters aren't buying.
