Will Naveen Patnaik Find Difficult To Retain 21 LS Seats?

By Manas Sahu | Bhubaneshwar

ODISHA ELECTION SCENARIO Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik seems to be facing his toughest political battle as he bids for a fourth straight term in Odisha and struggles to retain his party's 14 Lok Sabha seats out of the state's total of 21. If opinion polls are any indication, the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) led by him may retain power with a reduced strength, but the resurgence of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could pose a formidable challenge to his political career. 

According to the latest opinion polls, the BJP is likely to replace Congress as the main opposition by bagging seven of the state's 21 Lok Sabha seats, an unexpected gain for a party which had drawn a blank in the state in 2009 elections. The BJD and BJP were ally for 11 years before they parted ways in 2008. They jointly fought the Lok Sabha polls in 1998, 1999 and 2004 and the assembly elections of 2000 and 2004.

Maoists Appear Divided Over Tactics During Elections 2014

By Chandan Rai (Guest Writer)

The outlawed CPI (Maoist) appears, which has given a call for boycotting the 16 th Lok Sabha polls, appear to be divided regarding their tactics vis-à-vis the largest democratic exercise worldwide.

If the recent activities of the banned Left Wing Extremist outfit CPI (Maoist) are any indications, they seem to be split over their modus operandi during the 16th Lok Sabha elections. While they have given a poll boycott call in a number of their pocket areas in Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh, the Red rebels have decided to urge the people to opt for the NOTA (none of the above) option in various areas.

No End To Weather Woes, 'Cyclone Lehar' To Hit Tomorrow

By Rajyalakshmi Tegga | Vizag

No end to the weather woes in Andhra Pradesh, after cyclone Phailin and cyclone Helen, the state now braces for cyclone Lehar which will make landfall on Thursday. Costal Odisha has also been put on high alert.

According to weather officials, Leher is about 700-800 kms from the coast and landfall is expected by Thursday noon. Heavy rains can be expected in the coastal districts from wednesday evening with the cyclonic system inching towards the coast.

'Dead' Man Became 'Alive' After 11 years In Odisha

By Manas Mahopatra / Berhampur

A man who was declared "dead" by his father 11 years ago in Odisha was found alive, police said. The bizarre incident came to light after the crime branch of Odisha Police traced Gajendra Kumar Kar in his hometown of Berhampur in Ganjam district, about 180 km from here and arrested him.

He was arrested as his father's complaint that he was kidnapped and murdered was found false, he said.

Indian Elections 2014: Lok Sabha Elections Schedule Out With 814 Million Voters And Wolrd Longest Elections

By Kajol Singh | INNLIVE

In 2014 general elections of India becomes world's longest election schedule in world's largest democratic country. The number of Indian voters has gone from 176 million in the first general election held in 1952 to some 814 million in 2014.

Chief Election Commissioner V S Sampath who announced poll Lok Sabha schedule on Wednesday said the increase in the number of voters since the last Lok Sabha polls of 2009 was about 100 million.

The poll panel announced a nine-phase election schedule from April 7. The election election results will be announced on May 16. This is the longest ever poll schedule in India's electoral history.

Spotlight: More Than 10,000 Indian Companies Have Defaulted On 'Provident Fund' Payments

By M H AHSSAN | INNLIVE

The numbers of defaulting companies and institutions is growing.

It should have taken 30 days for Sanjaya Kumar, 27, from Odisha to withdraw his father’s provident fund of Rs 40,000, the post-employment rainy-day or retirement stash that companies must compulsorily deduct from salaries.

Opinion: 'Indian Politics Dark Horse Rising As Third Front'

By Neerja Chowdhury (Guest Writer)

Non-controversial Naveen Patnaik could be a consensus leader if a Third Front emerges. The 2014 mother of all battles is increasingly becoming a fight between Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi. And yet, as things move, the post-poll scenario may well become a toss-up between a Modiled BJP and a Congress – and Left – supported Third Front, or a variant. As of now, the prospects of a Congress-led UPA-III do not look promising. 

For 'Make In India' To Work, India First Needs To Become Globally Competitive

By LIKHAVEER | INNLIVE

A survey of industrial clusters in four states shows Prime Minister Narendra Modi's big idea isn't exactly working.

Bhoday Sales Corporation is tucked inside the industrial zone of Ludhiana. A small machine tooling factory with a net worth of not more than Rs 10 lakh, it makes manufacturing equipment for other plants in the city.

Of late, it has fallen on bad times. Sales are down. At one time, says its founder, 68- year-old Maan Singh, the company used to make four power presses a month. It now makes one a month.

The Apathy Of Hospitals: One Doctor For 2,100 Indians

By M H Ahssan / INN Live

Last month, tragedy struck Bhargavi and Laisan Kanhar in Sambalpur district of Odisha. The tribal couple’s only child Banita who was in Class III fell into a hot egg curry cauldron at her school in Girischandrapur village while she waited for the midday meal.

The eight-year-old suffered severe burns and was rushed to the nearby primary health centre (PHC), where the only doctor was absent. The hospital staff applied first aid and referred her to the VSS Medical College and Hospital at Burla. 

However, there was no ambulance to take her to the hospital 72 km away. She finally reached there in a private vehicle nearly four hours after the accident. The same evening, she was again referred to the SCB Medical College and Hospital in Cuttack, nearly 300 km away. By next morning, Banita was declared dead at the hospital in Cuttack.

Why Opposition Becomes Irrelevant In Indian Democracy?

Instead of accurately representing the people's choice, our electoral system has become a "winner-takes-it-all".

With his Aam Aadmi Party winning 67 out of the 70 seats in the Delhi elections, Arvind Kejriwal could have added insult to the BJP's injury by refusing it the post of the Leader of the Opposition (LoP) in the Delhi legislative Assembly.

According to the norms, a party needs to secure more than ten per cent of the seats to nominate its LoP.

Think Fast: Power Crisis Looming Large In Andhra Pradesh

By Venkat Rao | Hyderabad

Power sector in the State is facing a piquant situation that holds the potential of turning into a crisis in the coming months thanks to the local agitations and transport problems in Odisha.

Power generation from the 2000 MW (4X500 MW) NTPC Simhadri power plant in Visakhapatnam has almost stopped for want of coal from the Talcher coal fields in Odisha.

The State gets dedicated supply of 1,000 MW from the central generating station while a portion of the balance power would be allocated depending on the need.

Rivers Of Discord Between Telangana And Seemandhra?

By Srinivas Rao | INN Live

Krishna and Godavari rivers rise in the Western Ghats and flow to the Bay of Bengal through the states of Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. Since the annicuts were built during the British rule a 100 years ago, they provided kharif irrigation to both the river deltas.

After Andhra Pradesh state was formed in 1956, the construction of Nagarjuna Sagar reservoir provided for rabi irrigation in the Krishna delta. Similarly, after the construction of Pochampad dam in 1969, the Godavari delta got rabi irrigation.

Narendra Modi Is Serious About Ending India’s Endless Cycle Of Elections

By NEWSCOP | INNLIVE

India’s most prolific political campaigner is turning out to be the biggest proponent of ending the country’s unending cycle of elections.

Amid his interview blitzkrieg on July 05, Indian prime minister Narendra Modi once again backed the idea of synchronising the country’s state and national election cycles.

In an interview to the Economic Times newspaper, Modi argued that simultaneous elections would better reflect the popular mandate, apart from causing less disruption to the business of governance.

'Super Cyclone Phailin' Has Potential To Create 'Havoc'

By Ramesh Reddy / Hyderabad

The super cyclone Phailin may create havoc in targetted states Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, Lakshman Singh Rathore, DG, Cyclone, Met Department, said. This storm has very high damage potential as wind speed is very high. Even huge objects may fly and there is a possibility of breaking down of communication towers. 

Another Critique Of Modi Growth Model Goes Nowhere

An important project for intellectuals in India these days is debunking the Gujarat growth story. Since many “secularists” dislike Narendra Modi, it has become important to deny him what he claims as one of his achievements: the state’s fast-paced growth.

While it is nobody’s case that every achievement of Gujarat should be attributed to Modi’s leadership or even his tenure, the efforts by many to punch holes in his story are sometimes pathetic. You don’t improve your case against what Modi may have done wrong in 2002 by rubbishing what he may have done right at other times.

More often than not, the holes punched in the Gujarat story are bizarre because they are forced. They are also illogical: if Gujarat’s growth is not the result of Modi’s work, which is what his critics want to claim, you can’t in all fairness attribute all of Gujarat’s failures to Modi either. The argument cuts both ways.

Another debunking of the “Modi miracle” has been attempted by Arvind Subramanian in Business Standard. He says the Modi model fails on a key governance standard: the metric of the state’s own tax revenues (OTR) as a share of state GDP.

Quoting research by Utsav Kumar of the Asian Development Bank, the author says that Modi’s Gujarat does not pass the “smell test” of high or stable OTR-to-state GDP. While traditionally well-governed states such as Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh have maintained stable or rising OTR-to-GDP ratios, the average figure for Gujarat has declined, from 7.84 percent to 6.65 percent of GDP between 1990-99 and 2006-11.

The drop is large, but predates Modi. During Modi’s tenure, the drop has been from 6.93 percent to 6.65 percent.  If anything, he may have arrested the rate of fall in the second half of his tenure.

In contrast, the comparative figures for Karnataka (8.98 percent to 9.57 percent), Tamil Nadu (8.93 percent to 8.54 percent), and Andhra Pradesh (6.78 percent to 7.73 percent) were either stable or better over the two decades.

While Karnataka and Andhra show a rise, Tamil Nadu was stable in the 1990s, but reported a drop that was more or less similar to Gujarat’s during the last decade (8.8 percent to 8.54 percent – a drop of 0.26 percent from 2000-2005 to 2006-11 against Gujarat’s 0.28 percent).

Subramanian also notes that states which have recently been mentioned in the same breath as Gujarat on growth and improved governance – Bihar, Odisha and Chhattisgarh – have managed to improve significantly on this ratio. Bihar’s figures are 4.30 percent and 4.61 percent (hardly earth-shattering); Chhattisgarh’s 7.32 percent is excellent (the earlier figures were not available); and Odisha’s improvement significant (4.65 percent and 5.63 percent).

What ties these three states’ OTR performance together is political stability.

That’s the answer to Subramanian when he asks: “In the tax collection data, why can one see a Raman Singh effect, a Nitish Kumar effect, a Naveen Patnaik effect, but not a Narendra Modi effect?”

Gujarat, on the other hand, saw a degree of political instability in the late 1990s and early 2000s – remember the Keshubhai-Vaghela political fight – till Modi came to power.

To assess Subramanian’s criticism, we have to examine his assumption that over the long term one would expect taxes as a share of GDP to rise as incomes and growth rise. However, this assumption can be flawed depending on the circumstances of each state, and also the development model adopted.

If you have adopted a private sector-led growth model, where the big investments are in infrastructure, agriculture and manufacturing (as in the case of Gujarat), taxes may not rise in proportion to state GDP. Infrastructure investments (in ports, new cities, roads, power and rural water bodies) are typically long-gestation projects which may boost growth well ahead of tax revenues. For example, Gujarat’s investments in infrastructure will start paying off once the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor takes off, but the failures relate to slow progress upstream and downstream of Gujarat – in Rajasthan and Maharashtra.

Agriculture, where Gujarat has seen a major spike, pays no taxes. Infrastructure such as ports will yield higher customs revenues as trade increases, but these go to the centre and do not accrue directly to the state (so, little rise in own tax revenues). The big investors in the state – Reliance, Essar and the automobile companies – have been lured in with huge tax incentives. The assumption is that they will generate more business and jobs than revenues for the exchequer in the initial stages. They will yield revenues only after their tax-free status ends.

Given this model of development, one would expect growth to precede revenue growth in Gujarat. And this is what may be happening. But we will have to suspend judgment on this for a few more years to check if it really does happen.

In contrast, Chhattisgarh’s revenues depend on mining, while the growth of states such as Karnataka and Tamil Nadu has been led as much by services such as software as manufacturing and agriculture.  One should thus expect a different revenue-to-GDP skew in such cases. Services are, by definition, highly profitable, unlike infrastructure. Highly profitable service industries employing lakhs create local spends that boost OTR.

The real fallacy of the analysis lies in the fundamental assumption itself: that states should be judged not by growth or other parameters, but by revenues. While over the long term the correlation between economic activity and tax revenues may be positive, it may not be so if a state consciously seeks to give itself a more recessed role, by remaining more an enabler than a spender.

The downside of excess state spending can be seen at the centre today, where high fiscal and current account deficits have together brought growth itself down.

Another state that fares equally badly as Gujarat is Kerala – which is supposed to excel on human development indicators. Between 1990-99 and 2006-11, Kerala’s OTR-to-GDP ratio fell from 8.86 to 7.83 percent, a sharp one-percent drop, despite high growth rates driven by private spending.

Subramanian conveniently forgets to make this comparison, since Kerala-Gujarat comparisons are often otherwise made on social indicators to show Gujarat in bad light.

Both Kerala and Gujarat, for reasons that may be peculiar to them, have seen GDP growth but not high tax revenues shares in GDP.

More important is this truism: a ratio rises or falls not only on the basis of the numerator (taxes), but the denominator (GDP). If GDP is growing fine, the ratio will fall even if tax revenues are rising, but more slowly. As a metric, more is not necessarily better when it comes to taxes. What matters is the outcome – growth and equity. In fact, one can invert the OTR-GDP ratio to GDP-OTR to prove that Gujarat is growing faster on a lower government spend, and thus government is more efficient.

Perhaps worried that he may have made too big a point about tax revenues, Subramanian debunks his own argument partially and admits that “this might be a very misleading, even unfair, assessment,” since “Modi could argue – consistent with his right-of-centre ideology – that …he should be celebrated for delivering dream outcomes…”. These outcomes being small government and efficient government.

That is precisely the point. Modi’s critic has effectively demolished his own argument.

Why Kar'taka Idol Theft Is Impacting Chhat'garh Politics?

By Mithilesh Mishra / Raipur

What does a case of idol theft in Karnataka, the main culprit of which was nabbed in Odisha, have to do with the politics of Chhattisgarh? The connection might look tenuous, but it is causing a ripple in Chhattisgarh as it heads for polls in a month’s time. 

The Jains, a numerically small but electorally influential community, are up in arms against the BJP-led state government for being apathetic to their demand for the recovery of the idols.

Child Prodigies: Three-Year-Old Archer 'Dolly Cherukuri' Should Remind Of Budhia Singh, The Marathon Boy

There are lessons from the story of the four-year-old who ran 65 km from Bhubaneshwar to Puri in just seven hours.

The recent story of Dolly Cherukuri, who set a new national record in archery nine days before her third birthday, prompts a revisit to the story of Budhia Singh, child marathon runner from Odisha.  Dolly’s father, who is also her trainer, and runs an academy for archery, claimed that preparations to mould Dolly to be a future archer began even before her birth.

The India Growth Story Is In Trouble Due To 'Design Defect'

By M H Ahssan / INN Bureau

We need the middle ground and multiple models. What we have is an angry and wasteful polarity. The keepers of India’s economic vision seem to have contracted a crippling disease: a propensity for polarities. Debates about the country’s economy inevitably fall into two hostile — and futile — tracks. One of these was evident in the very public spat between economists Amartya Sen and Jagdish Bhagwati last week. 

This may have yielded entertaining heat but little else.

AN OPEN LETTER ON UNDERTRAILS OF INDIA

To, The Government of India, Members of the Judiciary, and All Citizens, 
    
One of the most disastrous consequences of the strife in the tribal areas of central India is that thousands of adivasi men and women remain imprisoned as under-trials, often many years after being arrested, accused of ‘Naxalite/ Maoist’ offences. 
    
The facts speak for themselves. 
    
In Chhattisgarh, over two thousand adivasis are currently in jail, charged with ‘Naxalite/ Maoist’ offences. Many have been imprisoned for over two years without trial.

'Anti-Corruption Hysteria Hurt India More Than Any Scam'

By Mihir Sharma / Mumbai

There is a rot at the heart of India. But it is not the rottenness that anti-corruption crusaders, for example, imagine it is. Instead, it is a corrosive lack of trust; a mainstreaming of conspiracy theorising; and a slackness with procedure and common notions of justice in the pursuit of imagined corruption that are eating away at India. When future historians examine this period, they will assign to this breakdown of good sense the responsibility for faltering Indian growth, and for lasting damage to India's institutions and balance of power.